Tag Archives: New York Mets

Aaron Nola, The Symbolism of Facing the Rays, and the Concept of Hope on a Random Tuesday Night

(Picture via nola.com — Kinda makes you think)

I used to have this — for lack of a better term let’s call it a — ‘talent.’

You could name a random date between the months of April-October, and for an approximately seven-year span from 2006-2012, I could tell you what the Phillies did on said date. Not just whether they won or lost but final score, opponent, winning and losing pitchers, how runs were scored — everything.

Friends of mine who knew about it would tell friends of theirs. It wasn’t totally unusual to walk into a room and be suddenly greeted with:

“September 26, 2008.”

Let me think for a second. They beat the Nationals, 8-4. Wait, maybe it was 7-4, dammit, no, it was definitely 8-4. Joe Blanton got the win. Ryan Howard hit a three-run homer to center field in the first inning that Lastings Milledge leaped at the wall for but couldn’t bring back. Charlie Manuel got ejected in the top of the ninth inning just for the hell of it, and the Phillies put themselves in position to clinch their second consecutive NL East title the following day.

I think this whole thing started somewhere around May 12, 2006, when a then 22-year old Cole Hamels made his Major League debut on a Friday night against the Cincinnati Reds. Five shutout innings with only one hit allowed. I don’t recall ever being asked that date, but I wish I had.

Recently that ‘talent’ or whatever you want to call it has evaporated some. Name a random date from 2006-2012, and I’ll be very rusty trying to come up with the answer. Name one between 2013-2015, and I likely won’t know it. Combine less accessibility to games on TV along with the Phillies recent slide, and it had to end at some point. Shelling out money for MLB.TV to watch a team that is going to flirt with a franchise record for losses just isn’t that tempting.

I can count on less than two hands how many Phillies game I have watched so far in their hellacious first half of the season that left them with the worst record in baseball at the All-Star break. Tonight though, I’ll get one closer to double digits when Aaron Nola steps on the mound at Citizens Bank Park and throws his first pitch in the majors shortly after 7 p.m.

Hope is a beautiful thing, and tonight it comes in the form of a 22-year old right-handed pitcher who skyrocketed through the Phillies minor league system to the tune of a 2.57 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning after being drafted out of LSU last summer, leaving the team’s much-maligned front office almost no choice but to call him up to the show.

How Nola fares specifically tonight in his first start is arguably irrelevant in the long run. He won’t save the Phillies from 100 losses and the worst record in baseball this season, not with his perceived innings limit and the other eight players in the starting lineup with him. He won’t rescue them from the baseball hell that a laundry list of miscalculated personnel decisions has subjected them to for next season or two. He won’t automatically make them a contender again.

No, not even close. Nola won’t single-handedly do any of that, but perhaps it is fitting that his initial taste of major league baseball comes against the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that rarely visits Citizens Bank Park but was here for a six-day stretch when baseball in Philadelphia was at its happiest over the past three and a half decades.

Hamels pitched like an ace that he would ultimately become. Chase Utley deposited a ball in the right field seats. Brad Lidge fell to his knees in celebration, and it rained a lot, so much that a mostly likable bunch of Rays players and coaches who played in the 2008 World Series decided to complain about Mother Nature among other things nearly seven years later.

Nola’s arm will not make that scene any more recent, but it can make the current mess a bit less painful and create the notion that better days are ahead even if they aren’t yet visible.

It won’t bring back the rally towels, and the scoreboard watching in late September, and the magical October nights when more than 45,000 fans rocked a ballpark to its core, but should those one day return over the next decade, Nola will likely be a driving force behind it.

Hope.

For such a short word, it’s a really powerful one, driving decisions that without it would make little to no sense, like being excited to watch a 33-62 baseball team in a bar on a random Tuesday night.

July 21, 2015.

Nine years from now, if I remember one thing from this nightmarish season, it will be whatever happens tonight.

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Cole Hamels No Longer Sucks Against the Mets

In a lost season for the Phillies where positives are hard to come by, there might be a silver lining in that ace Cole Hamels may have finally solved his kryptonite.

After years of massive struggles against the New York Mets, it appears Hamels has at last figured out how to pitch against the National League East rival.

To the charts we go!

Date Stadium IP ER Score Winning Team Decision QS Career Record vs. Mets Career ERA vs. Mets
8/14/2006 CBP 8 0 13 — 0 Phillies Win Yes 1 W, 0 L 0
4/9/2007 Shea 6 3 11 — 5 Mets None Yes 1 W, 0 L 1.8
6/7/2007 Shea 7 3 6 — 3 Phillies None Yes 1 W, 0 L 2.57
6/29/2007 CBP 5 3 5 — 2 Mets Loss No 1 W, 1 L 3.12
4/18/2008 CBP 7 4 6 — 4 Mets Loss No 1 W, 2 L 3.55
9/7/2008 Shea 5 4 6 — 3 Mets Loss No 1 W, 3 L 4.02
6/10/2009 Citi Field 5 4 5 — 4 Phillies None No 1 W, 3 L 4.4
8/21/2009 Citi Field 5 4 4 — 2 Mets Loss No 1 W, 4 L 4.69
9/11/2009 CBP 6.2 1 4 — 2 Phillies Win Yes 2 W, 4 L 4.28
5/27/2010 Citi Field 6.1 2 3 — 0 Mets Loss Yes 2 W, 5 L 4.13
8/7/2010 CBP 7 1 1 — 0 Mets Loss Yes 2 W, 6 L 3.84
8/13/2010 Citi Field 8 1 1 — 0 Mets Loss Yes 2 W, 7 L 3.55
9/26/2010 CBP 4 5 7 — 3 Mets Loss No 2 W, 8 L 3.94
4/5/2011 CBP 2.2 6 7 — 1 Mets Loss No 2 W, 9 L 4.46
5/28/2011 Citi Field 7 2 5 — 2 Phillies Win Yes 3 W, 9 L 4.31
7/16/2011 Citi Field 4.1 7 11 — 2 Mets Loss No 3 W, 10 L 4.79
9/24/2011 Citi Field 7 1 2 — 1 Mets None Yes 3 W, 10 L 4.54
4/15/2012 CBP 7 2 8 — 2 Phillies Win Yes 4 W, 10 L 4.41
5/28/2012 Citi Field 8 4 8 — 4 Phillies Win No 5 W, 10 L 4.42
7/5/2012 Citi Field 7 4 6 — 5 Mets None No 5 W, 10 L 4.46
9/19/2012 Citi Field 6 2 3 — 2 Phillies None Yes 5 W, 10 L 4.4
4/28/2013 Citi Field 6 1 5 — 1 Phillies Win Yes 6 W, 10 L 4.27
6/21/2013 CBP 6 4 4 — 3 Mets Loss No 6 W, 11 L 4.4
7/20/2013 Citi Field 5 4 5 — 4 Mets Loss No 6 W, 12 L 4.53
8/28/2013 Citi Field 7 2 6 — 2 Phillies Win Yes 7 W, 12 L 4.44
9/20/2013 CBP 7 6 6 — 4 Mets Loss No 7W, 13 L 4.59
4/29/2014 CBP 4.2 6 6 — 1 Mets Loss No 7 W, 14 L 4.79
5/11/2014 Citi Field 7 1 5 — 4 Mets None Yes 7 W, 14 L 4.64
6/1/2014 CBP 7 1 4 — 3 Mets None Yes 7 W, 14 L 4.51
7/29/2014 Citi Field 8 0 6 — 0 Phillies Win Yes 8 W, 14 L 4.31
8/9/2014 CBP 7 1 2 — 1 Mets None Yes 8 W, 14 L 4.21

What we have here is a mess of data that covers nine years, three stadiums between the two teams, five managers, six NL East titles, and on a wider scale, two different presidencies.

Let’s pull some relevant numbers:

  • 31 total starts
  • Phillies are 11-20 in those 31 starts
  • 17 quality starts
  • Four starts where earned runs have been higher than innings pitched
  • Four quality starts in five games against the Mets in 2014 including four consecutive outings
  • The four consecutive quality starts streak ties a personal record against the Mets
  • 2.40 ERA against the Mets in 2014. (0.93 ERA last four outings)
  • Current career ERA vs. Mets lowered by .38 since the start of the season and by .58 over the last four starts.
  • Current career 4.21 ERA vs. Mets is lowest it has been since September 2010.

You might not think all of this is a big deal, but I’m telling you that it is. This is not some Drew Balis created narrative. Hamels’ problems against the Mets have been a real issue and acknowledged by mainstream media, specifically this CSN Philly piece by Corey Seidman from late April.

While I would like a bit of a larger sample size to make my point, four near lights out starts will get the job done here. There have been times earlier in his career where Hamels has been going great only to be tripped up when drawing the Mets, and that isn’t the case right now.

Why is it significant going forward though?

It’s important because Hamels has started four games against the Mets every season dating back to 2010 and already has five this year, and the Phillies have yet another series against them at the end of the month.

Whenever the Phillies face their NL East rival, there is a 60 percent chance that Hamels will pitch in a three-game series.

It also matters because as much as I hate to admit it, the Mets are pretty close to being a much improved team. Their rotation next season will feature Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler, Jacob DeGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.

Right now, the Mets lead the Phillies by four games. If the Phils want to escape the division cellar in coming seasons and snap out of this three year malaise, their number one starter is going to have to beat other teams in the NL East.

The Phillies are still 1-4 in Hamels’ starts against the Mets this season, but run support is now the sole problem as opposed to Hamels himself contributing to the poor record in the past.

If the Phillies can ever return to prominence over the next decade, the left arm of their homegrown ace will be a driving force, and beating the Mets, who figure to be contenders, will certainly be significant.

Much of the talk on Twitter has been about how dominant Hamels has been over the past two months, but after nearly a decade of watching him every fifth day, we already knew he was capable of that. We did not know, however, that he was capable of consistently pitching well against the Mets.

Now we know.

Related Cole Hamels coverage you might enjoy:

Cole Hamels is on the Mound Tonight and I am Hella Hella Pumped

Why I’m Not Buying the Cole Hamels Trade Rumors

Why I’m not Buying the Cole Hamels Trade Rumors

Cole Hamels dominated the Mets at Citi Field earlier tonight.

The first three words of that aforementioned sentence are not exactly surprising. Hamels has been absolutely owning opponents since the beginning of June, posting a 1.58 ERA over that span.

The fourth and fifth words are a bit more shocking. Hamels rarely ‘dominates the Mets.’ He entered the contest with a 7-14 record and a career 4.53 ERA against them. One would need to take a time machine back to August 14, 2006 — his first career start against the Mets — to find the last time he tossed a scoreless outing against them.

They normally give him fits, but tonight, that couldn’t have been further from the truth. Hamels is completely locked in, and during one of the greatest stretches of his career, there is some speculation that it was his final start in Phillies pinstripes with the trade deadline set for Thursday at 4 p.m.

Nope. I’m not buying it.

I’m not beleiving it because if the Phillies were to trade their 30-year old ace, they literally might not be able to field a rotation next season.

I had this in my head for a few days, but the graphic at the top of the page that appeared on Phillies Pregame Live should tell the story. Out of all the pitchers that currently comprise the team’s rotation, Hamels is the only one who really has a good chance to return.

Cliff Lee is about to turn 36 and coming off an elbow injury that cost him two months of his season. If that never happened, it’s likely that he would be dealt, and it is still widely believed that the Phillies will look to move him in the winter once he reestablishes value.

A.J. Burnett could be traded although a 2015 contract option complicates that. He may also simply retire, something he nearly did last winter.

Meanwhile, Kyle Kendrick and Roberto Hernandez are both free agents once the season ends.

Now, you could certainly think that the two of them won’t be missed, but a club still needs bodies to take the ball every fifth day. One of the biggest issues is the lack of starting pitching depth in the organization, and this exercise brings that problem to the forefront.

Jesse Biddle’s future is up in the air after a rough patch in the minors led to some time off. Aaron Nola won’t be ready and nor should he be. Jason Marquis and Sean O’Sullivan are two veteran names in the system right now — You start to get the idea of how serious this is.

Aside from a few attractive names at the top, the starting pitching market for free agents is pretty weak.

If Hamels were to be traded, you are essentially looking at an Opening Day rotation of Lee and four number 5 starters (David Buchanan likely being one of them).

The team most linked to Hamels has been the Dodgers with Joc Pedersen, Corey Seager, and Julio Urias the reported players. This would be a haul for the Phillies in theory as all three are currently rated as Top 20 MLB prospects, but only Urias is a pitcher out of that trio.

Due to an unwillingness to waive no-trade clauses among other things, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins figure to be here next season, which means that the Phillies — delusional or not — will enter the year with some intention of trying to win.

As flawed as Ruben Amaro’s stuck in the mud approach might be, it stands a much better chance that the Phillies catch lightning in a bottle with Hamels in the rotation than without him.

David Murphy kinda, sorta argued the opposite yesterday in the Philadelphia Daily News. I’m not buying it when considering the uncertainty that comes with the return in just about any deal here.

While trying to look at this logically, I’ll admit that I’m not completely unbiased when it comes to the issue at hand. I wrote about Hamels and how I hoped he would be here for years to come just three months ago.

Coming up on 39 hours to go though, I am confident that I will get my wish because regardless of the offer, the alternative will not just weaken the Phillies five-man rotation next season, it could essentially leave them without one.