Tag Archives: Mike Trout

My NL Cy Young Pick Nearly Threw a Perfect Game Last Night

Back on the eve of baseball season, I made a prediction that I essentially knew had little chance of coming to fruition.

Every year, I make a bunch of baseball picks, and in 2014, I selected Madison Bumgarner as my NL Cy Young winner.

I feel like I got earlier exposure to the San Francisco lefty than some others because he was a vital part of the Giants defeating the Phillies in the 2010 NLCS. I liked his peripherals and always thought he had a breakout year coming.

Plus, it was just more fun than the stereotypical Clayton Kershaw or Adam Wainwright pick. Everyone who makes predictions gets a safe one when they choose Mike Trout for AL MVP but after that, you need to have some fun.

Bumgarner won’t win it, but he should solicit some votes, and he showed last night why he could one day challenge Kershaw for it, tossing a one-hit complete game gem against the Rockies and carrying a perfect game into the eighth inning.

Bumgarner 2

Justin Morneau, who currently stands between Ben Revere and a batting title, ruined the party with six outs to go when he laced a double off the right field wall.

Bumgarner 1

No worries though. Bumgarner promptly recovered, striking out four of the final six Rockies batters. Some will point out that the Rockies have the second worst record in the league, but they also have the second highest run total in all of baseball.

The Giants’ lefty entered last night 22nd in pitching WAR with a solid 3.0. He has a 3.02 ERA backed up by a 3.00 FIP. His strikeout rate per nine innings is 9.15, and he is now tied for the league lead in wins with 15 (whatever that means).

Even though I will ultimately be wrong, thanks for making me look smart for a night. You also may have put my on the bubble fantasy team in the playoffs, so high five.

Do your thing, Mad Bum. Maybe someday, maybe someday.

Advertisements

In the Latest Example of the Baseball Gods Hating Philadelphia, King Felx Will not Pitch Against the Phillies

The surprisingly good Seattle Mariners will make a cross country trip beginning on Monday night to face the unsurprisingly not good Philadelphia Phillies in a three game-series at Citizens Bank Park, and sadly, Felix Hernandez will not be a part of it.

The best pitcher of the last decade and American League Cy Young favorite will only be able to watch from the visitors dugout since he just pitched Saturday night and will not start again until next Friday at Fenway Park against the Red Sox.

Reading this, you’re probably thinking ‘meh, ace pitchers miss teams all the time.’

That is true, but the thing that especially sucks about this situation is Hernandez as of a week ago was on track pitch the final game of the Phillies series.

Hernandez pitched on August 5th, and the Mariners did not have an off day until this past Thursday, the 14th. Rather than pitch on four days rest like normal, Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon shuffled his rotation, which pushed his ace back an extra day.

Instead of going August 5th, August 10, and August 15, he went, August 5th, August 11th, and August 16th.

The first schedule would have put him on track to pitch the Wednesday series finale, but that disappointingly is no longer the case.

If any of that was hard to follow, here’s a link and screenshot of the Mariners recent schedule to illustrate what I just wrote.

Mariners Schedule

I first noticed this a week ago but held off on writing about it hoping for some kind of miracle.

King Felix Screenshot

Felix Tweets

As you can see, a friend of mine who is a Mariners fan provided some hope, but in this instance, McClendon’s aforementioned decision worked against us.

To pour some extra salt on an open wound, Cole Hamels is scheduled to pitch on Wednesday for the Phillies. We could have had Hamels-Hernandez and instead we’re getting Hamels-James Paxton.

Paxton is a pretty nice young pitcher, but he’s not King Felix, who is currently rocking a 1.99 ERA and leading all pitchers in WAR.

If I had to make a list of individual MLB players who I would fork over top dollar to see live, King Felix would be third, trailing only Clayton Kershaw and Mike Trout respectively.

If you are seriously invested in the Phillies right now, you are a better fan than me. I still watch most games, but the broadcasts have kinda turned into background noise while multi-tasking on something else. One of the game’s brightest stars in town, however, would have piqued my interest.

In a way, it would almost be a win-win situation. Either the Phillies beat one of the best (something they accomplished when they were one of the best in 2011) and have a nice memory to take away from a lost season, or you get to say that you saw him dominate in-person.

The Mariners have not been to Philadelphia since 2002, and there is no telling when they will be back again.

If you need a team to root for though with the Phillies out of it, might I suggest them? They are currently a half game back of the second wildcard spot in the American League.

Outside of Robinson Cano and Austin Jackson, there are not a lot of recognizable faces in the everyday lineup, but if they crash the playoff party, their starting rotation could make them the life of the party.

Everyone talks about feeling bad for Giancarlo Stanton wasting some awesome years playing for the Marlins, but he is still only 24 years old. His time will come. The Mariners ace has been dominating since 2005 but hasn’t seen an October yet. This might be his best shot.

Unfortunately, rooting for the Mariners won’t solve our immediate problem. We were one day, one Lloyd McClendon decision away from getting Hernandez-Hamels. An amazing matchup to spice up a dull August will not come to fruition.

Another disappointment in a season of them. This time though, you can’t blame Ruben Amaro, although I’m sure some people will still find a way.

Evaluating My MLB Predictions at the All-Star Break

Every year on the night before Opening Day I scribble down a bunch of baseball predictions for the upcoming season and post them on social media.

It has been a thing for much of the past decade, akin to a kid writing out his Christmas list every winter except this is a collection of what I think will happen, not necessarily what I want to happen.

For a decent amount of them, I pour over numbers and data. There’s also a few where I just shoot from the hip and try to have a little fun. Unfortunately though, I usually forget about a lot of the more detailed ones once October rolls around. This year I told myself that I wasn’t going to let that happen, and in order to help prevent it, I figured I’d take a look at how things are holding up halfway through the season.

Some are almost spot on, and others are embarrassingly bad, but unlike pond scum hack Mike Freeman, I will hold myself accountable when I get something wrong.

Let’s dive into it starting with the division standings and team records:

*Current record in bold and parentheses next to prediction 

NL East

Nationals (97-65) (51-42)

Braves (86-76) (52-43)

Phillies (76-86) (42-53)

Mets (74-88) (45-50)

Marlins (68-94) (44-50)

Overall, nothing jumps out as awful here. The Nationals would have to play .700 baseball to hit 97 wins, so that probably won’t happen, and the Marlins would really have to go south to only win 68 but no glaring errors here.

NL Central

Cardinals (95-67) (52-44)

Reds (90-72) (51-44)

Pirates (85-77) (49-46)

Brewers (78-84) (53-43)

Cubs (64-98) (40-54)

The big mistake here is obviously the Brewers. Despite a recent tailspin, it would still be quite a shock for them to finish under .500 at this point. Still plausible that the standings finish in the order I predicted though.

NL West

Dodgers (96-66) (54-43)

Giants (88-74) (52-43)

Diamondbacks (83-79) (40-56)

Padres (81-81) (41-54)

Rockies (71-91) (40-55)

The NL West seems really hit or miss for me. Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies predictions all have a chance to be pretty close. It would take a lot for the Diamondbacks and Padres to reach .500.

For real though, the Phillies might be brutal, but I’m not sure how people in San Diego do it.

Padres

AL East

Red Sox (95-67) (43-52)

Rays (94-68) (44-53)

Yankees (87-75) (47-47)

Orioles (86-76) (52-42)

Blue Jays (69-93) (49-47)

Let’s just take this and throw it in the trash, kk? I still wouldn’t be shocked if the Red Sox or Rays make a run in the second half, but this was kinda bad. Okay, really bad.

AL Central

Tigers (92-70) (53-38)

Royals (86-76) (48-46)

Indians (84-78) (47-47)

White Sox (70-92) (45-51)

Twins (62-100) (44-50)

The Twins will certainly eclipse 62 wins, but overall this looks pretty good. For the time being, I have the division order completely correct.

AL West

Rangers (90-72) (38-57)

A’s (89-73) (59-36)

Angels (86-76) (57-37)

Mariners (75-87) (51-44)

Astros (61-101) (40-56)

Yeesh. Perhaps I was a little too high on the Rangers, but I don’t think anyone anticipated them having the worst record in baseball heading into the All-Star break. The Mariners are on the way toward making me look stupid, and I welcome that because getting to watch Felix Hernandez in October for the first time ever would be awesome.

More predictions below:

NL Playoff Teams: Nationals, Cardinals, Dodgers, Reds, Giants 

If the playoffs started today, the Nationals, Dodgers, and Giants would all be in with the Cardinals and Reds knocking on the door. I have a chance to hit all five there, so things could be worse.

AL Playoff Teams: Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Rays, A’s

The American League is obviously less accurate. I’ll hold out hope that either the Red Sox or Rays make a run to get me three teams from that group.

World Series: Dodgers over Red Sox in six games 

With a playoff rotation of Kershaw, Greinke, and Ryu, the Dodgers certainly look capable of coming out of the National League. Red Sox, as already mentioned, are another story.

AL Cy Young: David Price

This is going to King Felix in all likelihood, but Price is 11th in the AL in WAR, 11th in FIP, and has the sixth best strikeout rate per nine innings in all of baseball. He may not win, but he’ll get some votes.

NL Cy Young: Madison Bumgarner

The popular thing here is to pick Kershaw or Adam Wainwright, and Kershaw will win it, but I decided to go a different route back in March. Bumgarner’s been good enough to make the All-Star game, so I’ll take that.

AL MVP: Mike Trout

Speaking of boring/safe predictions…I don’t think much else needs to be said here. Trout is going to win this time, and with the way the Angels are playing, none of the voters will be able to use them missing the playoffs as reason to vote for someone else.

NL MVP: Joey Votto

This was a shaky pick made worse by an injury plagued season for Votto. Oops.

AL Rookie of the Year: Xander Bogaerts

An awful June and July eliminated any chance of this. It’s Jose Abreu’s or Mashairo Tanaka’s (if he’s back by September) award to win.

NL Rookie of the Year: Billy Hamilton

This was a bit of an easy pick but for good reason. After a slow start, Hamilton has been everything I expected. Anyone who can swipe multiple bases off Yadier Molina in a single game deserves a medal.

First Manager to be Fired: John Gibbons

Turns out the Blue Jays are better than I expected. Despite a recent 2-8 stretch, Gibbons is likely safe so long as they’re in contention.

Ryan Braun bounces back and finishes in the Top five of NL MVP Voting

Braun’s battled injuries to put together a good first half, but this probably won’t end up happening.

Miguel Cabrera leads the league with 40 home runs

With only 14 on the season, Cabrera won’t get to 40 and certainly won’t lead the league. Hai Jose Abreu and Nelson Cruz.

Adam Wainwright leads league with 19 wins

This looks pretty good. Wainwright is currently tied for the league lead with 12, and one of the other pitchers with 12 is Tanaka who will be out at least six weeks.

Last but not least, the Phillies predictions:

The Phillies finish with a record of 76-86

In order to finish with this exact record, the Phillies would need to go 34-33 in the second half. Not likely but definitely not impossible.

Ben Revere will hit his first career home run on June 24th 

I was 28 days late, but he did hit a home run which is more than some would have realistically expected.

Dom Brown hits .271 with 30 HR’s and 90 RBI’s 

Go ahead and LOL. This is bad. It would take a monster second half for him to even sniff the same area code of that predicted average and home run totals. I know the negative 1.2 WAR is ugly as all hell, but the splits at least show that he’s been better lately at the plate. Hopefully that’s a sign of a bounce back second half.

Brown Splits

Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez never throws a meaningful pitch for the Phillies

Accurate so far. I don’t hate on Ruben Amaro Jr. as much as a majority of the fanbase does, but this was a bad move, very bad.

Marlon Byrd, career high 26 home runs

With 18 already, this looks on its way to being accurate. The 26th likely won’t happen in a Phillies uniform though.

On July 26, Cliff Lee throws eight shutout innings and receives a standing ovation at Citizens Bank Park. Three days later, he is traded to the Rangers at the trade deadline.

In a weird/completely lucky coincidence, Lee is scheduled to pitch this exact game. The trade obviously won’t be to the Rangers who are out of the race though. This is going to be a hot topic for the next couple of weeks leading up to the deadline.

My take: Keep Cliff, move him in December. He’s only scheduled to make two starts before the deadline. I fully expect him to come back strong, but I have a feeling teams are going to try to shortchange the Phillies citing questions about Lee’s health. Amaro already messed this up in 2009, and the repercussions would be much worse this time. Show him off for two months and wait for teams to come calling in the winter.

That’s all, folks. Obviously there’s a mix of good, bad, and average here, so I look forward to seeing where things are at in another three months.

If you have any thoughts or predictions of your own, please share in the comments.